Alguns comentadores afirmam que o gráfico acima nada nos diz sobre a relação entre nazistas e o capitalismo; que ele apenas nos diz que a economia melhorou sob o comando do nazismo. Assim como aconteceu com os Estados Unidos no governo de Franklin Delano Roosevelt. Então, talvez o gráfico mostre apenas as melhorias gerais da economia na década de 1930 enquanto acontecia um crescimento compartilhado pelo mundo industrializado?
Para a minha sorte, Suresh Naidu, uma excepcional economista em Columbia, me forneceu os seguintes gráficos.
O primeiro, retirado da obra de Thomas Piketty, O capital no século XXI, compara a parte da renda nacional destinada ao capital tanto nos Estados Unidos quanto na Alemanha entre 1929 e 1938. Suresh afirma que, a grosso modo, essa parte ajuda a entender a taxa de retorno que o capital possuía nessa época e nesses países.
Resumindo a história: o capital estava indo melhor na Alemanha nazista do que sob o governo Roosevelt. E isso não era decorrente do retorno do crescimento da performance econômica num país, mas sim graças às políticas econômicas do regime estabelecido. Ou ao menos é o que me diz Suresh (e geralmente acadêmicos deveriam reconhecer os méritos das contribuições de seus amigos e leitores e admitir todos os erros para si: nesse caso, estou colocando tudo na conta de Suresh).
O segundo gráfico – que vem de um fascinante artigo de Thomas Ferguson e Hans-Joachim Voth chamado “Betting on Hitler: The value of political connections in Nazi Germany” – consegue rastrear a performance da bolsa de valores na Grã-Bretanha, nos Estados Unidos, na França e na Alemanha entre janeiro de 1930 até novembro de 1933. Como vocês podem ver, nos primeiros meses em que Hitler esteve no poder, a performance das bolsas alemãs era bastante forte, superando todas as outras; é somente em julho que ela passa a ser rivalizada com a da Grã-Bretanha, a segunda mais competitiva.
No Twitter, Justin Paulson me mostrou este fascinante artigo do Journal of Economic Perspectives. Ele se chama The coining of ‘privatization’ and Germany’s National Socialist Party. Aparentemente, o primeiro uso da palavra “privatização” (ou “reprivatização”) e ocorreu na década de 1930, no contexto em que se buscava explicar a política econômica do Terceiro Reich. De fato, a palavra inglesa (privatization) era uma tradução do termo alemão “reprivatisierung”, que tinha sido recém cunhada durante o regime nazista.
Depois que mandei esse artigo para ele, Phil Mirowski também me mandou o artigo de Germà Bell, Against the mainstream: Nazi privatization in the 1930s, da revista Economic History Review. Esse artigo também tem considerações interessantes, como essa em seu resumo:
“Na metade da década de 1930, o regime nazista transferiu patrimônio público para o setor privado. Ao fazer isso, eles foram contra a corrente política dominante da época nos países capitalistas ocidentais, sendo que nenhum deles reprivatizou empresas durante a década de 1930”.
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