Deixe-me oferecer esta observação geral no terceiro dia do novo ano, pois, em 2020, não há tempo para perder. A Turquia pode estar prestes a enviar soldados para a Líbia. A Coréia do Norte pode estar planejando algo grande e provocador. Os líderes do sul do Iêmen se retiraram das negociações de paz com o governo do Iêmen, potencialmente reabrindo nova trincheira de guerra no Iêmen. O Talibã pode estar prestes a declarar um cessar-fogo no Afeganistão… ou, pode ser que não. A Austrália está rapidamente se tornando inabitável, enquanto seu primeiro ministro, um negacionista das mudanças climáticas, fica apenas assistindo.
E, agora, Donald Trump pode finalmente ter começado uma guerra de verdade com o Irã.
Uma história que começou quinta-feira à noite com relatos incompletos sobre um ou possivelmente dois ataques de mísseis fora do aeroporto de Bagdá se transformou em um relatório confirmado de que os Estados Unidos mataram o comandante da Força Quds iraniana Qassem Soleimani em Bagdá. No mesmo ataque com drones, os Estados Unidos também mataram Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, vice-líder do Comitê de Mobilização Popular do Iraque (PMC), o órgão que supervisiona as inúmeras facções das milícias do Iraque. Embora tecnicamente o vice-chefe do PMC, al-Muhandis também era o líder da milícia mais influente do Iraque, o Kata’ib Hezbollah, o que o transformava na figura mais poderosa da comunidade das milícias iraquianas. Sua morte é uma enorme escalada na última crise política do Iraque, que discutiremos aqui. Mas, obviamente, sua morte e suas repercussões são totalmente ofuscadas pela de Soleimani.
Se você acompanhou os desenvolvimentos dos últimos dois meses, sabe que o Iraque está à beira do caos completo, com manifestantes irritados com a corrupção, a ineficácia do governo e a influência estrangeira (principalmente via Teerã), tomando as ruas para exigir mudanças políticas gerais. A resposta violenta do governo iraquiano, a maioria provavelmente liderada pelas milícias da Mobilização Popular, deixou centenas de pessoas mortas e forçou a renúncia do primeiro-ministro iraquiano Adil Abdul-Mahdi. Mas a política iraquiana está tão quebrada que Abdul-Mahdi permanece no cargo de primeiro ministro interino porque os líderes políticos iraquianos não conseguiram chegar a um acordo. Isso é central para entender o contexto os acontecimentos recentes.
Em paralelo ao colapso político do Iraque, o país passou por uma escalada de violência envolvendo as milícias. Isso, provavelmente, inclui a morte de manifestantes, mas também inclui ataques esporádicos de foguetes contra bases militares iraquianas, onde estão posicionadas as forças estadunidenses, e também inclui ataques aéreos esporádicos, não atribuídos, mas provavelmente realizados por Israel (e/ou Arábia Saudita, mas provavelmente Israel), alvejando bases de milícias e esconderijos de armas. Os líderes da milícia culparam os Estados Unidos por ajudarem ou, pelo menos, permitirem esses ataques.
O contexto final aqui é a crescente tensão entre os Estados Unidos e o Irã desde que o governo Trump rompeu no ano passado o acordo nuclear feito com o Irã em 2015, o que já levou a vários incidentes violentos no Golfo Pérsico e ao redor. Seria impossível recapitular toda essa saga aqui, mas o principal fato a ser lembrado é que a instabilidade que tomou conta dessa região nos últimos meses decorre da decisão do governo estadunidense de cancelar um acordo internacional que a) estava funcionando e b) oferecia um caminho fácil para diminuir as tensões entre EUA e Irã para estabilizar o Golfo Pérsico.
Isso nos leva a 27 de dezembro, quando um desses ataques de foguetes esporádicos atingiu uma base militar iraquiana em Kirkuk e matou um empreiteiro civil americano, ferindo vários funcionários estadunidenses e iraquianos. Até onde sei, “empreiteiro civil” poderia abranger qualquer coisa, desde um funcionário de escritório até um oficial de segurança mercenário que não havia se envolvido em combate. Ou seja, um cidadão americano foi morto e os Estados Unidos determinaram que a Kata’ib Hezbollah — que foi fundada em 2003, se tornando uma das principais milícias que resistiram à ocupação americana no Iraque no pós-guerra e que enviou combatentes para ajudar Bashar al-Assad na Síria — estava por trás do ataque. E assim revidou, atingindo cinco alvos do Kata’ib Hezbollah no Iraque e na Síria no fim de semana. O Kata’ib Hezbollah disse que pelo menos vinte e quatro integrantes do seu pessoal foram mortos nos ataques, e al-Muhandis prometeu algum tipo de resposta.
A resposta inicial veio na segunda-feira por parte do governo iraquiano, que de maneira furiosa, condenou os ataques dos EUA como, antes de tudo, uma violação da soberania iraquiana. O que sustenta essa condenação é o profundo e muito compreensível medo iraquiano de que uma guerra entre os Estados Unidos e o Irã (e seus representantes) cause mais danos ao Iraque do que em qualquer outro lugar. O governo estadunidense rejeitou as queixas dos iraquianos com uma queixa própria, acusando o governo iraquiano de não ter protegido seu pessoal.
A resposta maior ocorreu no decorrer de segunda e terça-feira, quando uma multidão de combatentes e apoiadores do Kata’ib Hezbollah tentaram invadir a embaixada dos EUA em Bagdá. Eles tentaram iniciar incêndios, mas foram impedidos de invadir o prédio pela segurança. Talvez o fato principal seja que dois atores importantes da política iraquiana — o clérigo populista Muqtada al-Sadr e o grande aiatolá Ali al-Sistani se juntaram à multidão na condenação do ataque norte-americano. Al-Sadr pediu à multidão que parasse de atacar a embaixada e disse que usaria meios políticos para tentar forçar os Estados Unidos a sair do Iraque. Nem Al-Sadr nem Al-Sistani podem ser descritos como “pró-Estados Unidos”, mas ambos andavam muito mais preocupados com a interferência iraniana nos assuntos iraquianos nos últimos meses. Os ataques aéreos estadunidenses parecem ter mudado isso.
Agora, os Estados Unidos mataram al-Muhandis e Soleimani, uma das figuras mais poderosas e populares do Irã, que tinha perdido parte de seu brilho nos últimos dois anos, mas que ainda era uma das duas ou três pessoas cuja influência dentro do Irã era ofuscada apenas pela do seu líder supremo, o aiatolá Ali Khamenei. Obviamente, é muito cedo para saber quais serão as consequências, mas é inconcebível que o governo iraniano não retalie de alguma maneira, e essa retaliação não precisa vir na forma de uma guerra em grande escala. Seus representantes em toda a região, do Paquistão ao Líbano, passando por Israel-Palestina, podem realizar muitos ataques de retaliação contra os interesses dos Estados Unidos e de seus aliados.
Também é inconcebível que o governo iraquiano vá permitir que as coisas fiquem por isso mesmo. Deixando de lado a dependência política de Teerã por Bagdá, esta é a segunda vez em questão de dias que os Estados Unidos tratam a soberania iraquiana como uma piada, e desta vez isso resultou no assassinato de um alto funcionário iraquiano e de uma alta autoridade oficial iraniana que estava sob a garantia de segurança iraquiana. Há uma possibilidade muito forte de que o governo iraquiano exija a desocupação completa das Forças Armadas estadunidenses no país, e se a segurança do pessoal diplomático e de suas famílias na embaixada dos EUA em Bagdá já estava em perigo antes, esse risco foi ampliado consideravelmente.
Também deve ser enfatizado que tudo o que vier a seguir será de responsabilidade de um presidente dos EUA que se diz antiguerra, que afirma entender que a Guerra do Iraque foi incrivelmente estúpida e vingativa e que ainda assim pode ter provocado um conflito ainda mais catastrófico. Tudo o que ele fez desde que assumiu o cargo aproximou os Estados Unidos da guerra com o Irã, para a alegria do establishment de política externa de Washington, que busca exatamente isso há mais de quarenta anos.
É verdade, indubitavelmente, que, como vem reiterando repetidamente na TV o desfile de supostos especialistas desde o incidente, poucas pessoas fora do Irã e alguns poucos locais no Oriente Médio lamentarão a morte de Soleimani. Porém, seu assassinato não é, como Donald Trump certamente reivindicou, um feito espetacular do poderio militar estadunidense. Soleimani não estava escondido como Osama bin Laden ou Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Matá-lo foi relativamente fácil, mas também foi extremamente estúpido. Soleimani é agora um mártir do bullying americano e sua morte quase certamente tornará o Oriente Médio ainda menos seguro.
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powers to regulate the Melbourne Casino, including 24/7 onsite inspectors.
The casino operator (licence holder) must comply with all legal requirements.
The Melbourne Casino is the only casino in Victoria licensed under the Casino Control Act 1991(opens in a new window).
It is recommended that children under the age of six years old do not attend shows held in The Palms due to noise levels.
Disabled access toilets are also located in the foyer of
The Palms. Those patrons wishing to use a companion card with the booking must be able to present
the valid card at the box office upon ticket collection. For more information, visit Ticketmaster Customer Service.
Tickets for performances purchased through an authorised outlet will be fully
refunded, including fees.
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